A new joint assessment by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) and the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) aims to dispel any remaining scepticism among those who still fail to recognise the threat from Russia.

The document [is] not yet public … The weekly newspaper Spiegel obtained a draft and outlined its main findings [links to article in German]. The 30‑page analysis details cases of disinformation, espionage, sabotage, subversion and political influence operations in Germany.

The study covers the period from July 2024 to June 2025, also examining the consequences of earlier incidents. In just the first six months of 2025, 143 suspected acts of sabotage were recorded – an upward trend.

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“The central conclusion: Germany is at the heart of hybrid threats. They emanate not only from Russia, but above all from Russia,” Spiegel writes. The aim of hybrid operations is to foster a sense of insecurity and destabilise the state. The analysis suggests that various incidents that have shaken Germany form a chain of hybrid attacks either orchestrated or exploited by Russia.

A recent public hearing with all three German intelligence agencies likewise concluded that Russia is the primary actor behind sabotage and subversive activity in the country.

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Another key finding: in planning acts of sabotage, Russia shows no hesitation in taking lives. One example concerns an attack in the logistics sector with links to Lithuania.

In July 2024, incendiary devices were sent by DHL aircraft from Lithuania to the UK and Germany. A major disaster was narrowly avoided: the parcels did not make it onto the intended aircraft because it was delayed. The devices ignited in DHL’s Leipzig warehouse instead.

Investigators believe so‑called single‑use agents – individuals recruited via channels such as Telegram and given limited information – were used in Lithuania and other countries to carry out such operations.

Low‑level agents, often drawn from the criminal underworld, are suspected in other cases too – including a 2024 attempt to cast a shadow over then Vice‑Chancellor Robert Habeck and his Green Party. Hundreds of exhaust pipes were clogged with expanding foam, and cars were plastered with stickers featuring Mr Habeck’s image. These actions are seen as an attempt to influence the Bundestag election campaign.

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The report also identifies tools of political influence, such as the pro‑Russian platform Voice of Europe, through which pro‑Kremlin members of the European Parliament were allegedly financed. AfD MEP Petr Bystron is among those investigated over suspected payments from the portal.

Security agencies also point to the instrumentalisation of violent attacks on German society for propaganda purposes. After the fatal attack at Magdeburg’s Christmas market last December, Russian channels used the incident to discredit the German government and praise the AfD as a “positive alternative”, fuelling social tension and seeking to shift Germany’s political course.

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